GGOALVIO

China · League One · 3/14/2026, 11:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Guangxi Hengchen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Heilongjiang Lava Spring are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Guangxi Hengchen are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Guangxi Hengchen hold a 14.8-point power-rating edge (44.6 v 59.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.4% in the League One, while Guangxi Hengchen holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Guangxi Hengchen

Probability

53.4%

Model confidence

53.4%

Guangxi Hengchen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Heilongjiang Lava SpringLDWLD

GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Guangxi HengchenLWDWL

GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Heilongjiang Lava SpringGuangxi Hengchen
51.9Attack58.8
35.2Defence58.8
38.9Form56.9
44.6Power59.4
1.31xG2.18
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