Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HEBC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
HEBC are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while HT16 are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 3.80 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and HEBC hold a 25.3-point power-rating edge (45.8 v 20.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 8.7% in the Oberliga - Hamburg, while HEBC holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 74% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
HEBC
Probability
54.2%
Model confidence
8.7%
HEBC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 19 · GA 16 · avg 3.80/3.20