GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Champions League · 7/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Sturm Graz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Heart Of Midlothian are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Sturm Graz are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.40 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Sturm Graz hold a 48.5-point power-rating edge (8.0 v 56.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.3% in the UEFA Champions League, while Sturm Graz holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Sturm Graz

Probability

52.9%

Model confidence

12.3%

Sturm Graz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Heart Of MidlothianWLWWL

GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Sturm GrazWWWWW

GF 17 · GA 2 · avg 3.40/0.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Heart Of MidlothianSturm Graz
0.0Attack50.0
0.0Defence75.0
0.0Form50.0
8.0Power56.5
1.04xG1.77
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