Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guria · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 4-0
Guria are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Gardabani are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Guria hold a 47.5-point power-rating edge (75.8 v 28.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 18.8% in the Liga 3, while Guria holds the strongest overall chance at 95% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 81% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Guria
Probability
95.1%
Model confidence
18.8%
Guria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20