Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guingamp · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Guingamp are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Boulogne are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Guingamp hold a 2.8-point power-rating edge (50.7 v 47.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.5% in the Ligue 2, while Guingamp holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Guingamp
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
14.5%
Guingamp has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20