Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Firpo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Águila are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Firpo are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Firpo hold a 37.5-point power-rating edge (42.1 v 79.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.4% in the Primera Division, while Firpo holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Firpo
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Firpo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00