Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
14%
MediumconfidenceGroningen are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Utrecht are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Utrecht hold a 9.1-point power-rating edge (42.8 v 51.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Eredivisie, favouring a draw with 13.7% confidence, a 54% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
28.6%
Model confidence
13.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GroningenLWWLL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
UtrechtDWWWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GroningenUtrecht
39.2Attack49.1
48.0Defence53.7
38.2Form49.1
42.8Power51.9
1.15xG1.45