Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tukums · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Grobiņa are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Tukums are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tukums hold a 5.4-point power-rating edge (32.5 v 38.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.2% in the Virsliga, while Tukums holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tukums
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Tukums has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20