Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-3
Grobiņa are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Riga are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 3.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Riga hold a 51.0-point power-rating edge (32.5 v 83.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.1% in the Virsliga, while Riga holds the strongest overall chance at 88% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
87.6%
Model confidence
16.1%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 18 · GA 8 · avg 3.60/1.60