Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gremio · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Gremio are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Coritiba are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 47.3 against 49.2. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.9% in the Serie A, while Gremio holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gremio
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
14.9%
Gremio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80