Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gremio · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Gremio are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLD), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Confiança are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDW), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 0 of those 10 games and 0 passed 2.5 goals, and Gremio hold a 40.4-point power-rating edge (78.6 v 38.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.1% in the Copa Do Brasil, while Gremio holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gremio
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Gremio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.20/0.60
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40