GGOALVIO

USA · USL League One · 8/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Portland Hearts of Pine · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Greenville Triumph are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Portland Hearts of Pine are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Portland Hearts of Pine hold a 4.4-point power-rating edge (40.1 v 44.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.6% in the USL League One, while Portland Hearts of Pine holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Portland Hearts of Pine

Probability

41.5%

Model confidence

12.6%

Portland Hearts of Pine has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Greenville TriumphWLLLD

GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Portland Hearts of PineDLLLD

GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Greenville TriumphPortland Hearts of Pine
36.8Attack50.9
43.9Defence42.1
33.3Form36.8
40.1Power44.5
1.36xG1.59
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