Gillinghamvs
Luton
COMPLETEDEngland · League Cup · 8/8/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gillingham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Gillingham are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Luton are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Gillingham hold a 3.2-point power-rating edge (56.2 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.7% in the League Cup, while Gillingham holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gillingham
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
11.7%
Gillingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00