Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Genoa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Genoa are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Trento are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Genoa hold a 36.7-point power-rating edge (66.2 v 29.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Genoa holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Genoa
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
Genoa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20