Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
gefle IF · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Gefle IF are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Umeå FC are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Umeå FC hold a 3.9-point power-rating edge (43.7 v 47.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.8% in the Ettan - Norra, while Gefle IF holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
gefle IF
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
11.8%
gefle IF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20