Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Varketili · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-3
Gardabani are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.60 conceded, while Varketili are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Varketili hold a 53.9-point power-rating edge (28.2 v 82.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 91.5% in the Liga 3, while Varketili holds the strongest overall chance at 91% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Varketili
Probability
91.5%
Model confidence
91.5%
Varketili has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 18 · avg 0.60/3.60
GF 16 · GA 1 · avg 3.20/0.20