Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gama · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Gama are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Sao Jose are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Gama hold a 21.4-point power-rating edge (71.9 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 25.9% in the Serie D, while Gama holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 19% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gama
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
25.9%
Gama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60