Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spaeri · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Gagra are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Spaeri are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Spaeri hold an 11.2-point power-rating edge (36.0 v 47.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.9% in the Erovnuli Liga, while Spaeri holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Spaeri
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
12.9%
Spaeri has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60