Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saburtalo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Gagra are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Saburtalo are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Saburtalo hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (40.1 v 51.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.9% in the Erovnuli Liga, while Saburtalo holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Saburtalo
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Saburtalo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80