Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rustavi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Gagra are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Rustavi are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Gagra hold a 3.6-point power-rating edge (40.1 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.0% in the Erovnuli Liga, while Rustavi holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rustavi
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
13.0%
Rustavi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00