Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Fénix are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.40 conceded, while Lujan are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lujan hold a 16.7-point power-rating edge (44.9 v 61.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.7% in the Primera C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 20% BTTS chance and 13% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 17 · avg 0.60/3.40
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60