Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Diriangén · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Firpo are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Diriangén are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Diriangén hold a 27.3-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 51.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.0% in the CONCACAF Central American Cup, while Diriangén holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Diriangén
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
12.0%
Diriangén has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60