GGOALVIO

New-Zealand · Chatham Cup · 7/25/2026, 6:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Fencibles United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1

Highconfidence

Fencibles United are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Auckland City are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Fencibles United hold a 33.2-point power-rating edge (92.6 v 59.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.2% in the Chatham Cup, while Fencibles United holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 78% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Fencibles United

Probability

53.2%

Model confidence

53.2%

Fencibles United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Fencibles UnitedWLWWW

GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Auckland CityWLWWW

GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Fencibles UnitedAuckland City
100.0Attack83.3
77.8Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
92.6Power59.3
3.06xG1.71
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