Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Feirense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Feirense are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Arouca are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Arouca hold an 18.5-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 42.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Feirense holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Feirense
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Feirense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60