GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 3/29/2026, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

FC Tulsa are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Phoenix Rising are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Tulsa hold a 6.7-point power-rating edge (53.1 v 46.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.4% in the USL Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

39.4%

Model confidence

39.4%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

FC TulsaWDLWD

GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Phoenix RisingDDLLL

GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FC TulsaPhoenix Rising
35.1Attack42.1
68.4Defence54.4
50.9Form38.6
53.1Power46.4
1.05xG0.71
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