Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Porto · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
FC Porto are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Alverca are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Porto hold a 73.3-point power-rating edge (88.7 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.9% in the Primeira Liga, while FC Porto holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
FC Porto
Probability
56.5%
Model confidence
11.9%
FC Porto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40