GGOALVIO

Russia · Premier League · 8/14/2026, 2:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

FC Orenburg · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

FC Orenburg are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Lokomotiv are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Orenburg hold a 2.5-point power-rating edge (42.7 v 40.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.4% in the Premier League, while FC Orenburg holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

FC Orenburg

Probability

38.4%

Model confidence

14.4%

FC Orenburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

FC OrenburgDLLWL

GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LokomotivDDLDL

GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
FC OrenburgLokomotiv
33.3Attack22.2
33.3Defence66.7
50.0Form22.2
42.7Power40.2
1.27xG1.12
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