Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
FC Lugano are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Taverne are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Lugano hold a 5.1-point power-rating edge (48.4 v 43.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while FC Lugano holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20