Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
FC Lugano are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Dukagjini are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Lugano hold a 68.8-point power-rating edge (80.0 v 11.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 70.8% in the UEFA Europa Conference League, while FC Lugano holds the strongest overall chance at 71% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
70.8%
Model confidence
70.8%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20