GGOALVIO

Switzerland · Challenge League · 8/7/2026, 6:15:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

FC Aarau · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

FC Aarau are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Stade Nyonnais are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Aarau hold a 20.9-point power-rating edge (43.8 v 22.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.3% in the Challenge League, while FC Aarau holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

FC Aarau

Probability

49.6%

Model confidence

12.3%

FC Aarau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

FC AarauDLWLL

GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Stade NyonnaisLLDDL

GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FC AarauStade Nyonnais
33.3Attack22.2
44.4Defence33.3
44.4Form0.0
43.8Power22.9
1.74xG1.16
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