Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Farense · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Farense are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Torreense are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Farense hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.7% in the Segunda Liga, while Farense holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Farense
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
12.7%
Farense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60