Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Famalicao · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Famalicao are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Penafiel are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Famalicao hold a 43.5-point power-rating edge (75.0 v 31.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Famalicao holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 80% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Famalicao
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
58.9%
Famalicao has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00