Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maritimo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Famalicao are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Maritimo are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Maritimo hold a 35.0-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.3% in the Primeira Liga, while Maritimo holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Maritimo
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
14.3%
Maritimo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40