Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Famalicao · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Famalicao are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.00 conceded, while Arouca are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Famalicao hold a 32.9-point power-rating edge (75.0 v 42.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Famalicao holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Famalicao
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
Famalicao has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 0 · avg 1.40/0.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20