Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ayr Utd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Falkirk are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Ayr Utd are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Ayr Utd hold a 19.8-point power-rating edge (68.1 v 87.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.7% in the League Cup, while Ayr Utd holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ayr Utd
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Ayr Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80