Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fakel · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Fakel are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Zhenys are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Fakel hold a 37.2-point power-rating edge (55.6 v 18.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Fakel holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fakel
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Fakel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40