Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fakel · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Fakel are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Grafičar are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Fakel hold a 14.4-point power-rating edge (55.6 v 41.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Fakel holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fakel
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Fakel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80