Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fakel · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Fakel are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Akhmat are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DLDDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Akhmat hold a 9.8-point power-rating edge (26.7 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.3% in the Premier League, while Fakel holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fakel
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
13.3%
Fakel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20