Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shkendija · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Europa are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Shkendija are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Shkendija hold a 55.4-point power-rating edge (6.0 v 61.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.6% in the UEFA Europa Conference League, while Shkendija holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Shkendija
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
58.6%
Shkendija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20