Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estrela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Estrela are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Nacional are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Estrela hold a 13.6-point power-rating edge (61.3 v 47.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Estrela holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Estrela
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Estrela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20