Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estrela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Estrela are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDDLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Casa Pia are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Estrela hold a 38.3-point power-rating edge (61.3 v 22.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.7% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Estrela holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Estrela
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Estrela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40