Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Espanyol · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Espanyol are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while PAU are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Espanyol hold a 2.4-point power-rating edge (50.3 v 47.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Espanyol holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Espanyol
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Espanyol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60