Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ESMTK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
ESMTK are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Komárom are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and ESMTK hold a 23.5-point power-rating edge (77.4 v 53.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.7% in the Friendlies Clubs, while ESMTK holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
ESMTK
Probability
50.7%
Model confidence
50.7%
ESMTK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 10 · GA 14 · avg 2.00/2.80