Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mafra · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Esbjerg are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Mafra are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Mafra hold a 17.8-point power-rating edge (49.6 v 67.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Mafra holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mafra
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Mafra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00