GGOALVIO

Erzgebirge Aue logoErzgebirge AuevsUnion Berlin logoUnion Berlin

COMPLETED

World · Friendlies Clubs · 1/5/2026, 5:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Union Berlin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2

Highconfidence

Erzgebirge Aue are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDDLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Union Berlin are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Union Berlin hold a 5.0-point power-rating edge (44.4 v 49.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Union Berlin holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 88% BTTS chance and 91% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Union Berlin

Probability

38.4%

Model confidence

38.4%

Union Berlin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Erzgebirge AueWDDLD

GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Union BerlinWWLLL

GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Erzgebirge AueUnion Berlin
66.7Attack83.3
37.0Defence36.7
40.7Form40.0
44.4Power49.4
2.71xG2.93
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