Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Empoli · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Empoli are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Spezia are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Empoli hold a 9.3-point power-rating edge (70.1 v 60.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Empoli holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Empoli
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Empoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00