Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Emelec are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDDLW), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Macara are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Macara hold a 12.3-point power-rating edge (44.7 v 57.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.9% in the Liga Pro, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40