Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Emelec are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Libertad are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Libertad hold a 5.6-point power-rating edge (44.7 v 50.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.3% in the Liga Pro, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00