Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Emelec are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Aucas are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Aucas hold an 11.3-point power-rating edge (44.7 v 56.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.7% in the Liga Pro, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80