Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Elva are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Smiltene are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Elva hold a 20.8-point power-rating edge (44.5 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Elva holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Elva
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Elva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 14 · avg 2.20/2.80
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00